News

Nov 26, 2023

Topline Results: Times/Siena Poll of Likely Iowa Republican Caucusgoers

View the survey’s cross-tabs and results among the national likely Republican electorate. Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction? [IF NEEDED:

View the survey’s cross-tabs and results among the national likely Republican electorate.

Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?[IF NEEDED: Based on anything you may have seen or heard, if you had to pick, would you say right track or wrong direction?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Right track

5%

Wrong direction

93%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

I know it's a very long way away, but thinking about the Iowa presidential caucuses [cawk-ah-sis] in 2024, do you think you're more likely to participate in the Democratic Party caucus [cawk-is] or the Republican Party caucus [cawk-is], or do you think you won't attend a party caucus [cawk-is]?

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Democratic Party caucus

0%

Republican Party caucus

100%

Won’t attend a party caucus

0%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

0%

Thinking ahead to January’s Iowa Republican Party presidential caucuses, would you say you’re almost almost certain to attend the caucus, very likely to attend the caucus, somewhat likely to attend the caucus, not very likely to attend the caucus or not at all likely to attend the caucus?

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Almost certain

50%

Very likely

28%

Somewhat likely

15%

Not very likely

3%

Not at all likely

3%

[VOL] Already voted

0%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

If the Iowa party caucuses were being held today, which candidate would you be most likely to vote for?[DO NOT READ LIST][IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT PROVIDE A NAME, READ LIST AND STOP WHEN RESPONDENT GIVES A NAME. (You do not have to read the entire list.)][IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today ...]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Donald Trump

44%

Ron DeSantis [Duh-San-Tis]

20%

Mike Pence

3%

Nikki Haley

4%

Vivek Ramaswamy [Viv-AKE Rahm-uh-SWAM-ee]

5%

Asa [AYE-suh] Hutchinson

<.5%

Larry Elder

<.5%

Tim Scott

9%

Chris Christie

<1%

Doug Burgum [BER-gum]

1%

Francis Suarez [SWAHR-ez]

0%

Will Hurd

<.5%

Perry Johnson

0%

[VOL] Someone else (specify)

<1%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

12%

Would you say you support [candidate in previous question] strongly or not too strongly?

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Strongly

77%

Not too strongly

13%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

9%

(If voting for Donald Trump) Are you considering other candidates in the primary or are you only considering Donald Trump in the primary?

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Considering other candidates

47%

Only considering Donald Trump

52%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

(If NOT voting for Donald Trump) Are you considering supporting Donald Trump in the primary or are you not considering supporting Donald Trump in the primary?

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Considering Donald Trump

28%

Not considering Donald Trump

65%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

7%

And if the only choices were Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis, who would you be more likely to vote for?(Combined with primary vote choice)

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Donald Trump

55%

Ron DeSantis

39%

[VOL] Wouldn't vote if those were the choices

3%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

4%

(If not voting for Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis) And if the only choices were Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis, who would you be more likely to vote for?(Without combination)

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Donald Trump

31%

Ron DeSantis

51%

[VOL] Wouldn't vote if those were the choices

9%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

10%

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?[READ LIST]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Grade school

1%

High school

17%

Vocational or trade school

7%

Some college, no degree

19%

Associate’s degree

13%

Bachelor's degree

29%

Graduate or professional degree

13%

[VOL] Refused

<1%

(Recoded to age) In what year were you born? [IF NEEDED: This is just used to compute your age.]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

18-29

9%

30-44

21%

45-64

36%

65+

32%

Refused

2%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump.

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Very favorable

49%

Somewhat favorable

22%

Somewhat unfavorable

11%

Very unfavorable

16%

[VOL] Have not heard of

<1%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Ron DeSantis [Duh-SAN-Tis].

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Very favorable

29%

Somewhat favorable

48%

Somewhat unfavorable

11%

Very unfavorable

7%

[VOL] Have not heard of

2%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Mike Pence.

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Very favorable

11%

Somewhat favorable

35%

Somewhat unfavorable

30%

Very unfavorable

20%

[VOL] Have not heard of

<.5%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Tim Scott.

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Very favorable

31%

Somewhat favorable

38%

Somewhat unfavorable

7%

Very unfavorable

5%

[VOL] Have not heard of

9%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

9%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Vivek Ramaswamy [Viv-AKE Rahm-uh-SWAM-ee].

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Very favorable

22%

Somewhat favorable

25%

Somewhat unfavorable

11%

Very unfavorable

6%

[VOL] Have not heard of

21%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

15%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Chris Christie.

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Very favorable

4%

Somewhat favorable

16%

Somewhat unfavorable

28%

Very unfavorable

38%

[VOL] Have not heard of

5%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

9%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Nikki Haley.

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Very favorable

14%

Somewhat favorable

43%

Somewhat unfavorable

12%

Very unfavorable

10%

[VOL] Have not heard of

10%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

11%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Governor Kim Reynolds.

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Very favorable

68%

Somewhat favorable

22%

Somewhat unfavorable

3%

Very unfavorable

3%

[VOL] Have not heard of

<1%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

Thinking about the candidates for the Republican nomination for president, please tell me if you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis …

Strong leader[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Describes Trump a lot better

44%

Describes Trump somewhat better

18%

Describes DeSantis somewhat better

16%

Describes DeSantis a lot better

15%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

7%

Moral[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Describes Trump a lot better

17%

Describes Trump somewhat better

12%

Describes DeSantis somewhat better

26%

Describes DeSantis a lot better

31%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

14%

Likable[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Describes Trump a lot better

22%

Describes Trump somewhat better

16%

Describes DeSantis somewhat better

28%

Describes DeSantis a lot better

23%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

10%

Able to beat Joe Biden[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Describes Trump a lot better

35%

Describes Trump somewhat better

15%

Describes DeSantis somewhat better

17%

Describes DeSantis a lot better

23%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

11%

Gets things done[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Describes Trump a lot better

46%

Describes Trump somewhat better

19%

Describes DeSantis somewhat better

14%

Describes DeSantis a lot better

12%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

10%

Fun[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Describes Trump a lot better

34%

Describes Trump somewhat better

21%

Describes DeSantis somewhat better

12%

Describes DeSantis a lot better

7%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

26%

Do you think abortion should be always legal, mostly legal, mostly illegal or always illegal?

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Always legal

6%

Mostly legal

19%

Mostly illegal

43%

Always illegal

25%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

6%

For each of the following items, tell me whether you support or oppose the policy.

A state law banning abortions after six weeks of pregnancy[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Strongly support

43%

Somewhat support

16%

Somewhat oppose

15%

Strongly oppose

20%

[VOL] Have not heard of this

0%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

5%

A federal law banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Strongly support

49%

Somewhat support

18%

Somewhat oppose

9%

Strongly oppose

20%

[VOL] Have not heard of this

<.5%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

5%

Allowing gay and lesbian people to marry[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Strongly support

28%

Somewhat support

19%

Somewhat oppose

13%

Strongly oppose

31%

[VOL] Have not heard of this

0%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

8%

Providing additional economic and military support to Ukraine[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Strongly support

15%

Somewhat support

21%

Somewhat oppose

20%

Strongly oppose

40%

[VOL] Have not heard of this

<.5%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

4%

A comprehensive immigration reform bill that provides a pathway to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Strongly support

19%

Somewhat support

21%

Somewhat oppose

17%

Strongly oppose

40%

[VOL] Have not heard of this

<.5%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

What comes closer to your view about Donald Trump's actions after the 2020 election?[READ LIST]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

He was just exercising his right to contest the election

76%

He went so far that he threatened American democracy

19%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

6%

Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

A candidate who focuses on defeating radical “woke” ideology in our schools, media and culture

24%

A candidate who focuses on restoring law and order in our streets and at the border

67%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

9%

Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

A candidate who promises to fight corporations that promote “woke” left ideology

39%

A candidate who says that the government should stay out of deciding what corporations can support

56%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

5%

Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

A candidate who promises to protect individual freedom

56%

A candidate who promises to protect traditional values

36%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

8%

Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

A candidate who is more conservative than most Republicans

61%

A candidate who is more moderate than most Republicans

34%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

4%

Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

A Republican whom you agree with most on the issues

52%

A Republican who has the best chance to beat Joe Biden

44%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

5%

Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

A candidate who promises to grow business by cutting taxes on corporations

53%

A candidate who promises to protect workers by raising tariffs on imports

39%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

8%

Have you ever attended an Iowa party caucus?

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Yes

76%

No

24%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

Was it a Democratic caucus or a Republican caucus, or have you attended both caucuses?

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Democratic caucus

4%

Republican caucus

79%

Both caucuses

17%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

Now just a few questions for demographic purposes ...Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other Spanish background?

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Yes

3%

No

96%

[VOL] Refused

<1%

Would you consider yourself:[IF biracial or multiracial ask: What races would that be?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

White

94%

Black or African American

<.5%

Asian or Asian American

1%

Native American

<1%

[VOL] Some other race (specify)

2%

[VOL] More than one race

0%

[VOL] Refused

2%

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative?[FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Very liberal

<.5%

Somewhat liberal

2%

Moderate

20%

Somewhat conservative

31%

Very conservative

45%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?[IF NEEDED: I just want to remind you that you are completely anonymous. We only use this information in aggregate form to ensure we have a representative group of people.]

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Under $25,000

4%

At least $25,000 but under $50,000

8%

At least $50,000 but under $100,000

33%

At least $100,000 but under $200,000

33%

$200,000 or more

13%

[VOL] Refused

9%

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Catholic

21%

Protestant (Christian)

57%

Mormon (LDS)

2%

Jewish

<.5%

Muslim

0%

[VOL] Christian (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)

8%

[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox

0%

Some other religion (specify)

1%

No religious affiliation

9%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?(Combined with religion question)

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Yes

45%

No

21%

[VOL] Refused

3%

[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused

32%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?(Without combination)

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Yes

65%

No

31%

[VOL] Refused

4%

The Siena College Research Institute will guarantee your anonymity, [an-a-nim-a-tee] however: If you would be open to commenting on the issues in this survey, would you like to be contacted by a reporter?

Date:

July 28-Aug. 1, 2023

Pop.:

G.O.P. L.V.

Yes

28%

No

72%

Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 432 likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers was conducted in English on cellular and landline telephones from July 28 to Aug. 1, 2023. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.

Sample

The survey is based on a response-rate-adjusted stratified sample of non-Democratic registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage and nonresponse.

First, registered Democrats were excluded from the Iowa voter file. Iowa Republican caucus rules allow registered Democrats to re-register as Republicans at a caucus site, so excluding Democrats does introduce noncoverage bias. However, less than 2 percent of the likely Democratic caucus electorate were registered Republicans in Times/Siena polling of the Iowa caucus in 2020.

Second, records were selected. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Fielding

The sample was stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 73 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

Weighting

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of non-Democratic registered voters, including targets for the self-reported educational attainment based on previous Times/Siena polls.

The following targets were used to weight the sample:

• Party x primary participation (NYT classifications based on L2 voter data)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses)

• Gender (L2 data)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• Metropolitan area (2013 National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

• State region (NYT classifications)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Census block group density (A.C.S. 5-Year Census Block Group data)

• Home value (L2 data)

Likely caucusgoers

The sample of registered voters was screened to the Republican caucus universe, based on a question asking whether respondents were likely to participate in the Republican caucus, the Democratic caucus or wouldn’t attend a caucus. Only respondents who said they were likelier to participate in the Republican caucus were included in the potential caucus universe. All other respondents were excluded.

Next, respondents in the Republican caucus universe received a probability of caucusing, based on the relationship between self-reported intention to vote and validated turnout in prior Times/Siena polls. This probability includes a penalty based on the tendency for survey respondents to overreport voting; in this survey, that penalty was approximately twice as large as in a typical Times/Siena survey, based on the disparity between the implied and actual level of turnout in the Times/Siena survey of the Iowa Democratic caucus in 2020, which was conducted using the same likely voter screening questions. The probability of caucusing does not include a voter file-based turnout score, as the Iowa voter file does not contain the vote history of previous Republican caucusgoers.

The final weight was equal to the registered voter weight, multiplied by the respondent’s probability of voting in the Iowa caucus.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample of non-Democratic registered voters is 1.15. The design effect for the likely Republican caucus electorate is 1.57, which includes the added variance due to incorporating the probability that a respondent will participate in the Republican caucus.

Group

Unweighted All R.V.s

Weighted All R.V.s

Weighted G.O.P. Electorate

N

Gender

Men

52%

51%

55%

555

Women

47

47

44

500

Age

18 to 29

9

14

9

92

30 to 44

21

22

21

227

45 to 64

30

32

36

326

65 and older

36

29

32

388

Education

High school

23

29

18

248

Some college

36

37

39

383

College

25

24

29

266

Post-graduate

15

9

13

164

Home Ownership (L2 Model)

Likely renter

12

13

8

128

Likely homeowner

66

62

73

706

Unknown

22

25

19

241

Marital Status (L2 Model)

Married

57

54

67

618

Nontraditional

5

7

6

59

Unknown

37

40

27

398

Party (Based on L2 Data)

Republican

61

57

86

655

Other

39

43

14

420

Race (L2 Model)

White

84

84

81

906

Nonwhite

4

4

6

38

Census Block Group Density

Less than 50 people per square mile

26

28

34

275

50 to 500

26

25

23

277

500 to 2500

24

24

25

262

2500 to 7,500

22

22

17

240

More than 7,500

2

2

1

21

State Region

Des Moines area

17

17

19

181

East

25

26

28

272

Urban East

22

22

18

234

West

36

36

35

388

Turnout History (Based on L2 Data)

Voted in last midterm and in a primary

40

36

59

434

Voted in last two midterms

48

46

35

512

Voted in last general, no midterm

4

7

3

47

Did not vote in last general or midterm

4

7

1

44

New registrant

4

4

2

38